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What Do Oil Prices Signal?

November 14 2018

The U.S. midterm elections are done. The Democrats gained a majority in the House of Representatives, whereas the Republicans gained a majority in the Senate. This implies that Trump will have more trouble in introducing new legislation (another tax hike will be close to impossible, for instance), but will probably make it to the end of his term. Moreover, Trump can quite easily propose new Federal Reserve board members and Supreme Court judges; whereas Trump can propose candidates to fill

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Olav Dirkmaat

What to Expect After the U.S. Midterm Elections?

November 7 2018

The results of the U.S. midterm elections are final. Yesterday, on November 6, American voters went to the ballot box to cast their votes for Congress. The Republican party kept a majority in the Senate (governors were elected in 46 states) but lost its majority power in the House of Representatives. What will the consequences be for Trump and the Republican party, now that the Democrats have gained some control over public policy?

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Olav Dirkmaat

Recent Stock Market Weakness Persists

October 29 2018

The recent collapse in stock prices appears to persist. After an apparent recovery of stock prices last Thursday and yesterday, new data (quarterly earnings) was announced. Among others, internet companies such as Alphabet (Google) and Amazon reported their quarterly numbers. Alphabet fell after

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Olav Dirkmaat

Central Banks Print Money, Cause Inflation and Gold Prices Rise, Right?

October 23 2018

Well, according to many investors in gold, at least in theory. The central bank prints money, inflation goes up, and gold prices – as an inflation hedge per excellence – go up as well. This seemingly simple logic appears to hold some truth but is – unfortunately – entirely wrong. What is the real deal?

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Olav Dirkmaat

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