Last week the White House dropped a bombshell: Trump will impose an import tariff of 25% on steel imports and 10% on aluminum imports. For how long the import tariffs will apply, remains unclear. Stock market dropped violently in reaction to the news: the news seems to have surprised investors, despite the fact that Trump on multiple occasions threatened to impose import taxes to “help the domestic industry.” Industrial and manufacturing jobs should come back to the US, according to Trump.

After a tumultuous week on major stock markets (the Dow Jones index fell by more than 1,000 points in a single trading day), stock prices rebounded somewhat. But the damage on credit markets is irreversible. Despite the fact that, for now, it seems that the correction was short-lived, this was only a taste of what is coming. Interest rates, both short-term and long-term rates, are on the rise and the “junk bond” market is starting to implode. It appears that the floodgates have been opened

Let us for a moment pretend that we have a crystal ball. I have made a list of ten predictions which I seriously consider for this new year. Some predictions are somewhat more daring than others, but every one of the scenarios have, according to my judgment, decent odds to actually become reality in 2018. I cannot give guarantees, of course, but I can only assure you that I put my money where my mouth is. In other words, I follow Nassim Taleb’s principle of “skin in the game.”