Last week, the gold price closed near $1,325 per troy ounce, which is remarkable, since gold prices broke convincingly through the $1300-barrier after New Year’s Eve. Gold prices rallied even further by another three percent, topping $1340/oz, but slightly retreated last week. The motive? Everything appears to be awesome again on stock markets and Trump – insofar the rumors go – is nearing a tough fought trade agreement with the Chinese to resolve an impending all-out trade war. But this

This week, I wanted to highlight the United States auto industry. In 2008, the real estate market was the main culprit: everyone was talking about the “subprime” mortgage-crisis. Subprime involves riskier borrowers with lower credit scores. Two years ago, I emphatically said that it this time around a recession will not revolve around subprime mortgages, but more than anything else subprime auto loans. And this is especially remarkable given the fact that in 2008 various large American

While everyone was distracted by the festivities of December, the yield curve in the United States went virtually flat. Stock market prices dropped further and this time around China appears unable to make up for economic slack elsewhere. In China, all signs are turning red: retail sales are growing at the slowest pace in 10 years, the real estate market is falling again, auto sales are on the decline, and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell below 50, which points at a contraction of industrial activity. In other words: this time around, China will not be able to compensate for a slowdown of the U.S. economy. Indeed, 2019 might not turn out to be a very positive year for stocks at all.