The United States and China are engaged in a trade conflict, which is starting to increasingly resemble a real trade war. Now, I am fully aware that I am not saying something new here. However, I do want to address this topic once more, because it is about more than just trade.
... »It’s Not the Trade Deficit, Stupid!
September 6 2018
Dow Jones Index Closed Eighth Day in a Row with a Loss: Here Is What It Means
June 26 2018
Reality is finally dawning on investors: we are on the verge of a global trade war. As a consequence, last week, the Dow Jones Index closed on Thursday for the eighth day in a row with a loss. A rather rare event, since such persistent losing streaks do not occur often. Both in 2008 (during the Great Depression) and in 2011 (during the European sovereign debt crisis), the Dow Jones had an equally bad losing streak. Yet, ever since, a losing streak as the one we observed last week has not
... »On Gold as Inflation Hedge
June 20 2018
Is gold truly a solid hedge against inflation? Not quite, at least according to a study by Credit Suisse and the London School of Economics (LSE). They looked at the performance of gold and stocks from 1900 to 2012 and concluded that gold prices are too volatile and that stocks enjoy better
... »Three Mistakes That Markets Are Currently Making
June 13 2018
Financial markets are currently, according to my judgment, committing three important mistakes. These three mistakes imply that asset prices currently are – again, according to my judgment – also mistaken. Some asset classes are rather expensive, whereas other asset classes seem to offer better opportunities. The three mistakes that I want to highlight this week, are leading to (a) too high stock market prices, (b) too low gold prices, and (c) too high debt levels.
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