Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke studied it in detail decades ago: the yield curve. And that yield curve is currently flattening and flattening. An inverted yield curve (in which the short-term interest rate exceeds long-term rates), normally signals that a recession is near. As a result, analysts keep a close tab on the spread between short-term and long-term yields. Whenever the yield curve spread narrows, there is cause for alarm. And last week, the yield curve spread continued to decline even
... »The Yield Curve Just Keeps Getting Flatter (and Analysts Keep Looking for Excuses)
December 13 2017
Is Bitcoin the New Gold?
December 13 2017
At the time of writing, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of more than $17,200 dollars, whereas over the past few months the gold price remained close to $1,200 per troy ounce. Moreover, when we have a look at recent data from Google Trends, we can see that “buy bitcoin” has become a more popular search term than “buy gold”. Even the followers of former member of the U.S. House of Representatives Ron Paul (an avid gold bug) have shown in a recent poll on Twitter to prefer Bitcoin
... »Some Remarks on the Extremely Overvalued US Stock Market
November 29 2017
I have written on multiple occasions about the US stock market overvaluation. Stock prices are high, too high, according to my analysis. The fact that the US stock market is overvalued is not a thing of the recent past. The US stock market has been overvalued for years. I had some fierce debates
... »The Global CapEx Crisis
November 20 2017
CapEx is short for capital expenditures: new investment in fixed assets. These investments in fixed assets are largely responsible for economic growth and as such for increases in real wages. But as of lately, economic growth has not been what it used to be. Ever since the 2008 crisis, worldwide economic growth remains far below pre-crisis levels. What is the cause of this appalling economic growth? In short, because of the global CapEx crisis.... »