The very day the previous bull market in gold came to a halt, the bull market in fixed income began. Thirty-six summers later this bull market is coming to its climax. But no one seems to be aware of the speculative fever on the bond market. This week even the longest dated Swiss bond (brace yourself: this bond matures in 2064) went below zero. The entire Swiss yield curve is negative now. Yet, curiously, we tend to associate speculative manias almost automatically with stocks and commodities.

While I was expecting that the ‘Remain’-vote would reach a majority in the British EU-referendum, the British surprised the world by, with a million votes difference, opting for a Brexit. The British will leave the European Union in a trajectory that, they expect, will take over two years of negotiations. They will have to go through this tedious process, however, without British Prime Minister David Cameron. He threw in the towel after it became clear that a majority wants out of the

The delinquency rate on loans is key in understanding banking. It answers one question: what percentage of loans is overdue for payment? The delinquency rate is by far the most useful indicator for “credit stress.” It seems, however, as if delinquency no longer counts. Few are paying attention to the quick and sudden rise of the delinquency rate. What does it tell us and is a new banking crisis imminent?